In historical terms, it is impossible to separate Israel’s offensive against Hamas in Gaza from the long narrative of conflict and mutual grievance in the region.

In
geographic terms, the war over a tiny plot of land cannot be detached
from the wider involvement and strategic interests of other countries:
Syria, Egypt, the US, Iran.

All of which makes it difficult to judge where – even if a unilateral Israeli ceasefire holds – the war really begins and ends.

That
fact alone explains why the operation represents a defeat for Israel,
as was always likely to be the outcome. The notion that the country’s
security problems can be resolved by the unilateral use of extreme
force is a persistent delusion among Israeli politicians. In this case,
the problem was perceived to be Hamas rocket fire into southern Israel;
the solution was judged to be a war against Hamas. That analysis did
not allow for the vital, humane recognition that, in densely populated
Gaza, an all-out war against Hamas is, by necessity, an attack on the
civilian population.

Even on its own terms, the campaign has
failed. Israeli authorities will insist that they have limited the
ability of Hamas to launch rocket attacks. But the ostensible war aim
was destroying that capability completely.

Israel will also claim
that its campaign has exposed a lack of support for Hamas in many Arab
capitals; that Hamas’ position as the ruling authority in Gaza has been
undermined; and that Hamas has been revealed as little more than a
terrorist proxy acting on behalf of and armed by Syria and Iran.

But
the reality is that the status of Hamas as the preferred vehicle for
Palestinian resistance to Israeli occupation has been enhanced by the
indiscriminate brutality of the military assault.

Meanwhile,
that status guarantees the resurgence, in some form, of armed response,
including rocket fire and terrorist attacks on Israeli soil. It is
possible that Hamas’ military capability has been drastically reduced.
But even when Israel had full command of Gaza’s external borders, it
could not stop the trade in smuggled weapons. Sadly, Hamas will re-arm
with or without a ceasefire agreement.

Meanwhile, any increased
consideration of Iranian or Syrian sponsorship of terrorism will pale
against global outrage at the extraordinary disregard shown by Israeli
forces for the lives of Palestinian civilians. It is quite possible, as
the Observer today reports, that an Israeli withdrawal will reveal
evidence of actions deserving indictment as war crimes. Those
allegations must be independently investigated.

Israel’s allies
in the west, chiefly the US, have traditionally defended the country on
the grounds that it is a democracy besieged by despotic regimes and
terrorists. But while Israeli citizens do enjoy immense political and
social freedom, those values do not automatically prevent the state
from committing atrocities.

The fact of Israeli democracy is
not a reason to resist negotiations with Hamas. That was true before
this pointless, brutal war and will remain so afterwards.