Israel’s botched raid against the Gaza-bound humanitarian
flotilla on May 31 is the latest sign that Israel is on a disastrous
course that it seems incapable of reversing. The attack also highlights
the extent to which Israel has become a strategic liability for the
United States. This situation is likely to get worse over time, which
will cause major problems for Americans who have a deep attachment to
the Jewish state.
The bungled assault on the Mavi
Marmara, the lead ship in the flotilla, shows once again that
Israel is addicted to using military force yet unable to do so
effectively. One would think that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would
improve over time from all the practice. Instead, it has become the gang
that cannot shoot straight.
The IDF last scored a clear-cut
victory in the Six Day War in 1967; the record since then is a litany of
unsuccessful campaigns. The War of Attrition (1969-70) was at best a
draw, and Israel fell victim to one of the great surprise attacks in
military history in the October War of 1973. In 1982, the IDF invaded
Lebanon and ended up in a protracted and bloody fight with Hezbollah.
Eighteen years later, Israel conceded defeat and pulled out of the
Lebanese quagmire. Israel tried to quell the First Intifada by force in
the late 1980s, with Defense Minister Yitzhak Rabin telling his troops
to break the bones of the Palestinian demonstrators. But that strategy
failed and Israel was forced to join the Oslo Peace Process instead,
which was another failed endeavor.
The IDF has not become more competent
in recent years. By almost all accounts—including the Israeli
government’s own commission of inquiry—it performed abysmally in the
2006 Lebanon war. The IDF then launched a new campaign against the
people of Gaza in December 2008, in part to “restore Israel’s
deterrence” but also to weaken or topple Hamas. Although the mighty IDF
was free to pummel Gaza at will, Hamas survived and Israel was widely
condemned for the destruction and killing it wrought on Gaza’s civilian
population. Indeed, the Goldstone Report, written under UN auspices,
accused Israel of war crimes and possible crimes against humanity.
Earlier this year, the Mossad murdered a Hamas leader in Dubai, but the
assassins were seen on multiple security cameras and were found to have
used forged passports from Australia and a handful of European
countries. The result was an embarrassing diplomatic row, with
Australia, Ireland, and Britain each expelling an Israeli diplomat.
Given this history, it is not
surprising that the IDF mishandled the operation against the Gaza
flotilla, despite having weeks to plan it. The assault forces that
landed on the Mavi Marmara were unprepared for serious
resistance and responded by shooting nine activists, some at point-blank
range. None of the activists had their own guns. The bloody operation
was condemned around the world—except in the United States, of course.
Even within Israel, the IDF was roundly criticized for this latest
failure.
These ill-conceived operations have
harmful consequences for Israel. Failures leave adversaries intact and
make Israeli leaders worry that their deterrent reputation is being
undermined. To rectify that, the IDF is turned loose again, but the
result is usually another misadventure, which gives Israel new
incentives to do it again, and so on. This spiral logic, coupled with
Israel’s intoxication with military force, helps explain why the Israeli
press routinely carries articles predicting where Israel’s next war
will be.
Israel’s recent debacles have also
damaged its international reputation. Respondents to a 2010 worldwide
opinion poll done for the BBC said that Israel, Iran, and Pakistan had
the most negative influence in the world; even North Korea ranked
better. More worrying for Israel is that its once close strategic
relationship with Turkey has been badly damaged by the 2008-09 Gaza war
and especially by the assault on the Mavi Marmara, a Turkish
ship filled with Turkish nationals. But surely the most troubling
development for Israel is the growing chorus of voices in the United
States who say that Israel’s behavior is threatening American interests
around the world, to include endangering its soldiers. If that sentiment
grows, it could seriously harm Israel’s relationship with the United
States.
Life as an
Apartheid State
The flotilla tragedy highlights
another way in which Israel is in deep trouble. Israel’s response makes
it obvious that its leaders are not interested in allowing the
Palestinians to have a viable state in Gaza and the West Bank, but
instead are bent on creating a “Greater Israel” in which the
Palestinians are confined to a handful of impoverished enclaves.
Israel insists that its blockade is
solely intended to keep weapons out of Gaza. Hardly anyone would
criticize Israel if this were true, but it is not. The real aim of the
blockade is to punish the people of Gaza for supporting Hamas and
resisting Israel’s efforts to maintain Gaza as a giant open-air prison.
Of course, there was much evidence that this was the case before the
debacle on the Mavi Marmara. When the blockade began in 2006,
Dov Weisglass, a close aide to Prime Ministers Ariel Sharon and Ehud
Olmert, said, “The idea is to put the Palestinians on a diet, but not to
make them die of hunger.” And the Gaza onslaught 18 months ago was
designed to punish the Gazans, not enforce a weapons embargo. The ships
in the flotilla were transporting humanitarian aid, not weapons for
Hamas, and Israel’s willingness to use deadly force to prevent a
humanitarian aid convoy from reaching Gaza makes it abundantly clear
that Israel wants to humiliate and subdue the Palestinians, not live
side-by-side with them in separate states.
Collective punishment of the
Palestinians in Gaza is unlikely to end anytime soon. Israel’s leaders
have shown little interest in lifting the blockade or negotiating
sincerely. The sad truth is that Israel has been brutalizing the
Palestinians for so long that it is almost impossible to break the
habit. It is hardly surprising that Jimmy Carter said last year, “the
citizens of Palestine are treated more like animals than human beings.”
They are, and they will be for the foreseeable future.
Consequently, there is not going to
be a two-state solution. Instead, Gaza and the West Bank will become
part of a Greater Israel, which will be an apartheid state bearing a
marked resemblance to white-ruled South Africa. Israelis and their
American supporters invariably bristle at this comparison, but that is
their future if they create a Greater Israel while denying full
political rights to an Arab population that will soon outnumber the
Jewish population in the entirety of the land. In fact, two former
Israeli prime ministers—Ehud Olmert and Ehud Barak—have made this very
point. Olmert went so far as to argue, “as soon as that happens, the
state of Israel is finished.”
He’s right, because Israel will not
be able to maintain itself as an apartheid state. Like racist South
Africa, it will eventually evolve into a democratic bi-national state
whose politics will be dominated by the more numerous Palestinians. But
that process will take many years, and during that time, Israel will
continue to oppress the Palestinians. Its actions will be seen and
condemned by growing numbers of people and more and more governments
around the world. Israel is unwittingly destroying its own future as a
Jewish state, and doing so with tacit U.S. support.
America’s
Albatross
The combination of Israel’s strategic
incompetence and its gradual transformation into an apartheid state
creates significant problems for the United States. There is growing
recognition in both countries that their interests are diverging; indeed
this perspective is even garnering attention inside the American Jewish
community. Jewish Week, for example, recently published an
article entitled “The Gaza Blockade: What Do You Do When U.S. and
Israeli Interests Aren’t in Synch?” Leaders in both countries are now
saying that Israeli policy toward the Palestinians is undermining U.S.
security. Vice President Biden and Gen. David Petraeus, the head of
Central Command, both made this point recently, and the head of the
Mossad, Meir Dagan, told the Knesset in June, “Israel is gradually
turning from an asset to the United States to a burden.”
It is easy to see why. Because the
United States gives Israel so much support and U.S. politicians
routinely laud the “special relationship” in the most lavish terms,
people around the globe naturally associate the United States with
Israel’s actions. Unfortunately, this makes huge numbers of people in
the Arab and Islamic world furious with the United States for supporting
Israel’s cruel treatment of the Palestinians. That anger in turn helps
fuel terrorism against America. Remember that the 9/11 Commission
Report, which describes Khalid Sheik Muhammad as the “principal
architect of the 9/11 attacks,” concludes that his “animus toward the
United States stemmed not from his experiences there as a student, but
rather from his violent disagreement with U.S. foreign policy favoring
Israel.” Osama bin Laden’s hostility toward the United States was
fuelled in part by this same concern.
Popular anger toward the United
States also threatens the rulers of Egypt, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia, key
U.S. allies who are frequently seen as America’s lackeys. The collapse
of any of these regimes would be a big blow to the U.S. position in the
region; however, Washington’s unyielding support for Israel makes these
governments weaker, not stronger. More importantly, the rupture in
Israel’s relationship with Turkey will surely damage America’s otherwise
close relationship with Turkey, a NATO member and a key U.S. ally in
Europe and the Middle East.
Finally, there is the danger that
Israel might attack Iran’s nuclear facilities, which could have terrible
consequences for the United States. The last thing America needs is
another war with an Islamic country, especially one that could easily
interfere in its ongoing wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. This is why the
Pentagon opposes striking Iran, whether with Israeli or U.S. forces. But
Netanyahu might do it anyway if he thinks it would be good for Israel,
even if it were bad for the United States.
Dark Days
Ahead for the Lobby
Israel’s troubled trajectory is also
causing major headaches for its American supporters. First, there is the
matter of choosing between Israel and the United States. This is
sometimes referred to as the issue of dual loyalty, but that term is a
misnomer. Americans are allowed to have dual citizenship—and in effect,
dual loyalty—and this is no problem as long as the interests of the
other country are in synch with America’s interests. For decades,
Israel’s supporters have striven to shape public discourse in the United
States so that most Americans believe the two countries’ interests are
identical. That situation is changing, however. Not only is there now
open talk about clashing interests, but knowledgeable people are openly
asking whether Israel’s actions are detrimental to U.S. security.
The lobby has been scrambling to
discredit this new discourse, either by reasserting the standard
argument that Israel’s interests are synonymous with America’s or by
claiming that Israel—to quote a recent statement by Mortimer Zuckerman, a
key figure in the lobby—“has been an ally that has paid dividends
exceeding its costs.” A more sophisticated approach, which is reflected
in an AIPAC-sponsored letter that 337 congresspersons sent to Secretary
of State Hillary Clinton in March, acknowledges that there will be
differences between the two countries, but argues that “such differences
are best resolved quietly, in trust and confidence.” In other words,
keep the differences behind closed doors and away from the American
public. It is too late, however, to quell the public debate about
whether Israel’s actions are damaging U.S. interests. In fact, it is
likely to grow louder and more contentious with time.
This changing discourse creates a
daunting problem for Israel’s supporters, because they will have to side
either with Israel or the United States when the two countries’
interests clash. Thus far, most of the key individuals and institutions
in the lobby have sided with Israel when there was a dispute. For
example, President Obama and Prime Minister Netanyahu have had two big
public fights over settlements. Both times the lobby sided with
Netanyahu and helped him thwart Obama. It seems clear that individuals
like Abraham Foxman, who heads the Anti-Defamation League, and
organizations like AIPAC are primarily concerned about Israel’s
interests, not America’s.
This situation is very dangerous for
the lobby. The real problem is not dual loyalty but choosing between the
two loyalties and ultimately putting the interests of Israel ahead of
those of America. The lobby’s unstinting commitment to defending Israel,
which sometimes means shortchanging U.S. interests, is likely to become
more apparent to more Americans in the future, and that could lead to a
wicked backlash against Israel’s supporters as well as Israel.
The lobby faces yet another
challenge: defending an apartheid state in the liberal West is not going
to be easy. Once it is widely recognized that the two-state solution is
dead and Israel has become like white-ruled South Africa—and that day
is not far off—support for Israel inside the American Jewish community
is likely to diminish significantly. The main reason is that apartheid
is a despicable political system that is fundamentally at odds with
basic American values as well as core Jewish values. For sure there will
be some Jews who will defend Israel no matter what kind of political
system it has. But their numbers will shrink over time, in large part
because survey data shows that younger American Jews feel less
attachment to Israel than their elders, which makes them less inclined
to defend Israel blindly.
The bottom line is that Israel will
not be able to maintain itself as an apartheid state over the long term
because it will not be able to depend on the American Jewish community
to defend such a reprehensible political order.
Assisted
Suicide
Israel is facing a bleak future, yet
there is no reason to think that it will change course anytime soon. The
political center of gravity in Israel has shifted sharply to the right
and there is no sizable pro-peace political party or movement. Moreover,
it remains firmly committed to the belief that what cannot be solved by
force can be solved with greater force, and many Israelis view the
Palestinians with contempt if not hatred. Neither the Palestinians nor
any of Israel’s immediate neighbors are powerful enough to deter it, and
the lobby will remain influential enough over the next decade to
protect Israel from meaningful U.S. pressure.
Remarkably, the lobby is helping
Israel commit national suicide while also doing serious damage to
American security interests. Voices challenging this tragic situation
have grown slightly more numerous in recent years, but the majority of
political commentators and virtually all U.S. politicians seem
blissfully ignorant of where this is headed, or unwilling to risk their
careers by speaking out.
__________________________________________
John J. Mearsheimer is a
professor of political science at the University of Chicago and coauthor
of The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy.