Washington — As predictions of a Republican tidal wave in the coming
congressional elections became more certain, some Israelis were
experiencing goose bumps of anticipation.
Many on the right in Israel believe a shift of one or both houses of
Congress to a Republican majority could limit the Obama administration’s
ability to pressure Jerusalem — even more than it is already limited
with the Democrats — in its quest for a peace deal between Israel and
the Palestinians.
Friendlier?: If the Republicans were to capture the House in the
upcoming elections, John Boehner would become speaker. GETTY IMAGES
Early in his current term, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu
expressed his own predilection succinctly: “I speak Republican,” he told
Alon Pinkas, a top Israeli diplomat whose help he was seeking in
establishing rapport with President Obama, then new to the White House.
Currently, Netanyahu refrains from speaking on the issue but is still
said to be watching the November elections closely.
Israeli officials, according to a congressional source, have also been
raising questions in recent weeks about a possible change in U.S. policy
if Democrats lose the House.
“Netanyahu fears a strong Obama who can apply pressure,” said Yaron
Deckel, Israeli TV’s Channel 1 political commentator. “If the
Republicans win big in the midterm elections, Obama will be weaker and
less inclined to pressure Israel, and that will buy Netanyahu more
time.”
But even if Republicans do win a majority in the House of
Representatives, they will not, say some analysts, be like the
Republicans Netanyahu worked with in the 1990s. While hawkish and
pro-Israel, the new GOP leadership sees Israel as a lower-level
priority, these analysts say.
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“Gingrich loved the issue of Israel,” said Doug Bloomfield, a veteran
Congress watcher, political consultant and former lobbyist for the
American Israel Public Affairs Committee, the pro-Israel Washington
lobby, referring to former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
John Boehner, the current House minority leader, “does not,” Bloomfield
continued. Boehner will become House speaker if Republicans win a
majority. “Bibi doesn’t have a Republican leadership that is interested
in Israel as an issue,” Bloomfield said.
Furthermore, the neo-conservative strain of the Republican Party that
was dominant during Netanyahu’s first term as prime minister and was
highly active on foreign policy issues is in decline. Greater influence
in the party now lies in the hands of the Tea Party movement, a group
for whom foreign policy is a second-tier concern. The Tea Party movement
contains several contradictory strains when it comes to Israel.
Still, some observers believe that a Republican gain would benefit
Israeli opponents of the Obama administration’s Middle East policy.
Yoram Ettinger, a defender of Israel’s permanent hold on the West Bank
who served in the early 1990s as minister for congressional affairs at
Israel’s embassy in Washington, said a defeat of Democrats would
“express total mistrust in a president who is critical toward Israel.”
Ettinger, currently a consultant on U.S.-Israel relations at the Ariel
Center for Policy Research, said Israel should seize the opportunity a
GOP majority would present and upgrade its work with Congress. “We will
see a new political equation that is much more comfortable for Israel,”
he said.
Israelis have been accused in the past of heavy-handed meddling in
American politics. Arriving as Israel’s ambassador to Washington in the
presidential election year 1968, Yitzhak Rabin famously spoke openly of
his preference for Richard Nixon over Hubert Humphrey, angering Jewish
Democrats. And in the late 1990s, Netanyahu was widely seen as allying
himself with the Republican majority then in Congress in an attempt to
deter President Bill Clinton from pressing forward with the peace
process. Memorably, Netanyahu chose to open his high-stakes January 1998
visit to Washington with a series of meetings with conservative
congressional leaders, including Gingrich and Kansas Republican Senator
Sam Brownback, before heading to the White House to meet with Clinton.
Back then, Congress took many measures that complicated Clinton’s drive
for an Israeli-Palestinian agreement, including passing a law requiring
that the U.S. embassy be moved to Jerusalem (though, at the
administration’s insistence, a presidential waiver of the requirement
was included). Congress also put restrictions on U.S. funding and
recognition of the Palestinian Authority.
But Middle East expert David Makovsky warned against expectations that a
Republican Congress this time would curb the president’s drive for
Israeli-Palestinian peace. “History doesn’t necessarily repeat itself,”
said Makovsky, director of the project on Middle East peace at the
Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
Hadar Susskind, vice president for policy and strategy at J Street,
speculated that if Democrats lose their House majority, the
administration could focus even more on foreign policy. “We could see
the administration stymied on domestic issues, and the place where it
can succeed, and where Congress cannot block, is foreign policy,” he
said.
Congress’ ability to intervene on foreign policy issues is limited, but
does exist. A Republican-led House could blast the White House with
letters, could adopt declarative resolutions and could pass legislation
that would make promoting an American peace plan for the Middle East
more difficult.
One proposal already being discussed if Republicans take over the House
is detaching U.S. aid to Israel from the foreign aid bill. Virginia Rep.
Eric Cantor, who is expected to take a House leadership role if
Republicans win a majority, told the JTA that such a separation would
make it easier to maintain aid to Israel while cutting U.S. assistance
to other foreign countries‑‑a popular goal for many Tea Partiers. Israel
currently receives nearly $3 billion in yearly military assistance.
Democrats blased the proposal, warning it would ulitmately endanger aid to Israel by isolating it.
A Congressional Democratic staff member pointed also to the impact a
switch to a Republican majority could have on coordination between the
White House and Congress. Recently, the administration has worked
closely on Iran sanctions legislation with Howard Berman, the Democratic
chair of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs. At the request of the
White House, Berman delayed a vote on sanctions legislation, despite
Republican pressure, until the administration completed international
consultations that led to a United Nations resolution on this issue. It
is not clear if Florida Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, who is expected
to chair the committee if her party wins the majority, would act in the
same way.
Citing the sanctions bill as an example, New York Democrat Gary
Ackerman, argued that Israel’s best bet for addressing any concerns
about Obama’s policy would be for Democrats to retain power. “I’m not
saying that if the Republicans take the House it would be doomsday for
Israel, but if they want positive influence on the White House, that’s
us,” said Ackerman, who chairs the subcommittee on the Middle East and
South Asia of the House Committee on Foreign Affairs.
Ackerman and other Jewish Democrats point to the forceful criticisms
they conveyed to the White House when they thought that Obama was
leaning too hard on Israel.
“If you need the president, you need us as chairs of the committees,”
Ackerman said as he listed what he called the “first-class team” of
Jewish pro-Israel Democrats who chair key House committees: Berman at
Foreign Affairs, Barney Frank at Financial Services, Henry Waxman at the
Energy and Commerce committee, Sander Levin at Ways and Means, and
Ackerman himself in his role as head of the Middle East subcommittee.
“We are all pro-Israel and we all have major, major, major influence in
the executive branch.”
Contact Nathan Guttman at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.